The death of Kyoto?

A second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol has been a very public aim of CoP talks, particularly since Copenhagen.  Indeed it was this hope(enhagen) and ultimate failure to develop a second commitment period that led to the CoP 17 talks being described as an unmitigated disaster.  

Ever since Copenhagen, the media and the public has become increasingly disillusioned with the CoP process.  I don't think this is a fair reflection of the work being carried out by the body, but thats a discussion for another time.  The domestic policy problem here is that if the body for negotiating international efforts on climate change is not able to match expectations then what legitimacy does domestic action have?  Indeed, the continuing failure to reach a second commitment period to the KP begins to rob the UNFCCC of legitimacy.

So the question is: are we seeing the death of the Kyoto Protocol?  Canada is about to become the first country to ratify it and then later pull out - possibly because they weren't going to meet their target of 94% on 1990 levels and has indicated they have no interest in a second commitment period.  The US has never and, with its current domestic political climate, will never ratify it.  Japan and Russia have also indicated they have no interest in a second commitment period as long as transitional nations like Brazil and South Korea don't have targets.  And of course there is China, who has now eclipsed the US to become the largest net GHG emitter.  This  leaves Europe and a few others like Australia and New Zealand meaning that only 17% of global emissions would be covered.

Connie Hedegaard has said even said that the EU is only open to a second commitment period on the condition that the environmental integrity of the KP is improved.  Given the situation I wrote about above one could say that the EU is backing away from a second commitment period too.

Its hard to see where the leadership will come from to drive for the second commitment period in this global climate.  Perhaps Kyoto was a reflection of the post Montreal world - a world in which coordinated action on all environmental problems was thought possible.  Perhaps the world is a different place today or perhaps the diabolical nature of this problem makes CFC's look like a matchstick in a bushfire. 

I increasingly think that the future of mitigation is going to be one of piecemeal national efforts being stitched together into some kind of global whole, not a global whole leading national efforts.

Because of that, I think we are watching the death of the Kyoto Protocol happen before our eyes.